Happy Friday! Hopefully everybody had a great and profitable Christmas! In our last blog the picks went 3/4. Unfortunately the UCLA basketball game had zero defense in it and our under sadly went over. To cap off the week let's aim to go 2/2 and get the sweep. For today we have 3 CFB bowl games and 9 NBA games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Northwestern -13 Spread
Book: Bet365
Odds: +120 (Can take up to +109)
Northwestern -13 is a strong bowl position against Central Michigan due to clear advantages on both sides of the ball and proven postseason performance. The Wildcats bring one of the more reliable defenses in the Big Ten, allowing just over 20 points per game while ranking well above average in total yards allowed, third-down defense, and time of possession, which is critical for controlling bowl games. Northwestern’s ability to sustain long drives and limit mistakes has translated to consistent margins of victory, especially against non–Power Five opponents. Central Michigan, meanwhile, enters the bowl with a middling offense that struggled for consistency throughout the season and ranked outside the national top tiers in both scoring and efficiency, particularly against stronger defenses. Northwestern also has significant bowl experience, winning five straight bowl games, and has covered spreads as a double-digit favorite in similar matchups. With a clear edge in defensive depth, physicality, and game control, Northwestern is well positioned to pull away and cover the -13 spread.
This Northwestern -13 spread qualifies as a +EV bet because the +120 price at bet365 is well above the market consensus, creating a clear edge. Multiple sharp sportsbooks are pricing this same line significantly lower, with respected books showing -101, -102, and -105, signaling that professional money is comfortable backing Northwestern even at reduced payouts. The fair value is calculated at +109, meaning bettors are getting an extra 11 cents of value compared to true odds. That discrepancy results in a +5.1% expected value, which is a strong edge for a spread bet. When a book offers a number that beats both sharp pricing and fair value by this margin, it indicates mispriced odds and a mathematically profitable long-term opportunity.
Bet #2 Bub Carrington Over 8.5 Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -108)
Bub Carrington Over 8.5 points is a clear +EV bet because the +105 price being offered is significantly out of line with the rest of the market. Sharp sportsbooks are heavily juiced on this same prop, pricing the over at -127, -121, and -130, indicating strong professional agreement that Carrington is likely to clear this number. Based on that sharp pricing, the fair value is -108, meaning bettors are getting a much better payout than the true odds suggest. That gap between the market consensus and the available line creates a +6.6% expected value, which is a strong edge for a player prop. When sharps are aligned and the offered odds beat fair value by this margin, it signals a mispriced line and a profitable long-term betting opportunity.
Bet #3 Walter Over 3.5 / Under 3.5 Rebounds
Books: FanDuel / Hard Rock
Odds: +210 / -145
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Walter Over 3.5 Rebounds on FanDuel at +210 odds for $70.55. If this side hits you win $218.
Let's say you take Walter Under 3.5 Rebounds on Hard Rock at -145 odds for $129.45. If this side hits you win $218.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $218
No matter the result you make at least $18.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
