Happy Tuesday! Yesterday's picks went 3/4! Sadly East Carolina got absolutely smashed against North Carolina so they didn't cover so the +26.5 but everything else hit putting us at 75% on the day. Let's look to make that 4/4 today and we have a great slate to do it with. 14 NBA Games, 13 NHL Games, 3 CFB Bowl Games, and 12 CBB Games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet #1 Mitchell Robinson Under 5.5 Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +115 (Can take up to +100)
Mitchell Robinson’s scoring profile this season makes a compelling case for taking UNDER 5.5 points. On the year, Robinson is averaging just 4.8 points per game, a total that sits well below the 5.5-point mark most sportsbooks have set for his prop line this matchup. Over his last five games, Robinson has gone under the 5.5 points line in 4 of 5 contests, posting modest scoring totals of 2, 5, 4, and 9 points in those games before a one-off explosion — a performance pattern that underscores his low usage and limited offensive role. Outside of outliers, his offensive contributions have been heavily tied to rebounds and putbacks rather than consistent scoring volume, further suppressing his point totals. Additionally, Robinson faces a tough defensive challenge in Rudy Gobert, a former NBA Defensive Player of the Year and perennial rim protector whose presence in the paint makes interior scoring difficult for opposing bigs. Gobert has been dominant on that end throughout his career, anchoring elite defenses and winning the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award multiple times — a testament to the challenge Robinson will have converting efficient offense inside. Taken together, Robinson’s low scoring average, recent trend of finishing under his points prop, and a difficult matchup against elite interior defense all point toward the UNDER being the smart play.
This spot grades as +EV because the offered price on Mitchell Robinson Under 5.5 points at +115 is meaningfully better than the broader market and the implied true price. Sharp books are dealing the same under closer to -114, -117, and -107, signaling respected money agrees with a lower-scoring expectation, while the calculated Fair Value is +100, meaning +115 gives you extra cushion beyond what the odds should be. That gap translates to an expected value of about +7.4%, which comes from consistently beating the sharp consensus rather than predicting outcomes—you're getting paid as if the under is less likely than the sharp market believes it is.
Bet #2 Ander Lee Over 0.5 Points
Book: BetRivers
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +105)
Anders Lee has shown he’s capable of producing on the scoresheet recently, making OVER .5 points an attractive prop play. The New York Islanders forward has accumulated 23 points so far this season, ranking among his team’s consistent offensive contributors with 9 goals and 14 assists to date in the 2025-26 campaign. Over his last five games, Lee has been noticeable with 7 points, including a multi-point effort highlighted by 4 points in a single game, proving he can find the back of the net or set up teammates when given opportunities. That recent stretch of production shows Lee isn’t just a bystander — he’s actively involved in the Islanders’ attack and getting into positions to score or assist. With his veteran savvy and offensive instincts, Lee’s sustained involvement gives bettors confidence that he’ll reach at least one point in the matchup, especially given how fruitful his recent form has been.
From an odds-comparison standpoint (not a recommendation to wager), this qualifies as +EV because the Over 0.5 points at +110 is priced above both the sharp market and the calculated true line. Multiple sharp books are holding the same side at -117, -107, and -104, which implies a higher probability than what +110 suggests, showing respected money leans toward the over. The Fair Value is +105, so getting +110 means you’re beating the true price by a small but measurable margin, resulting in an expected value of about +2.5%. That edge comes purely from price inefficiency relative to sharp consensus, not from predicting performance.
Bet #3 Louisville -8.5 Spread
Book: Bovada
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -135)
Taking Louisville -8.5 against Toledo in the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl is a strong bet based on both teams’ profiles and matchup dynamics. Louisville enters the game as a clear favorite on the road with a spread around -8.5, and projections give the Cardinals a solid win probability thanks to their balanced offense and opportunistic defense. Louisville averages about 30.2–30.17 points per game offensively while holding opponents to roughly 21.1–21.08 points, showcasing a solid scoring margin that supports covering a mid-to-large spread. Meanwhile, Toledo — despite a stout defense that ranks among the top nationally in yards and points allowed — is dealing with a coaching transition and uncertainty that could blunt its ability to contain Louisville’s attack over four quarters. The Cardinals also lead the all-time series 5-3 and haven’t met the Rockets in decades, giving Louisville a psychological edge heading into this bowl matchup. While Toledo finished the season strong, the Cardinals’ capacity to generate turnovers, sustain drives, and limit mistakes projects to a multi-score advantage — especially if the Rockets adjust to interim leadership and face pressure early. With Louisville’s offensive balance and defensive consistency on display throughout the season, the -8.5 spread stands as a justifiable pick for bettors looking for a comfortable cover.
This shows positive expected value because the market is pricing Louisville -8.5 at -110 while sharper books are dealing the same spread much higher (around -161, -156, and -158), signaling strong sharp-side agreement on Louisville. When respected sportsbooks consistently post worse prices, it implies the true probability is higher than what -110 reflects. The calculated Fair Value of -135 suggests the line should be significantly more expensive, and getting -110 represents a meaningful edge versus that consensus price. That gap between the offered odds and fair value produces the +9.6% EV, indicating the bettor is being paid more than the true risk would justify based on sharper market information.
Bet #4 UC Riverside vs UCLA Under 154.5 Total Points
Book: UniBet
Odds: -167 (Can take up to -181)
When looking at UC Riverside vs. UCLA Under 154.5 total points, the numbers and recent trends suggest that the juice is worth taking on the low side. UCLA’s defense has been stingy this season, holding opponents well below their scoring averages and coming into this game ranked among the better defensive units in college basketball in points allowed per possession. UCR, on the other hand, isn’t a high-tempo scoring team and has struggled to put up big numbers against teams with disciplined defensive schemes, averaging modest offensive outputs in their losses. Both teams’ recent games have tended toward controlled, lower-scoring affairs rather than shootouts, and when you combine UCLA’s defensive efficiency with Riverside’s offensive limitations, a sub-155 total becomes well-supported by the data — making Under 154.5 a blog-ready play grounded in pace, efficiency, and matchup context.
Under 154.5 is a solid +EV look at +2.9% EV, as we’re grabbing -167 when the fair value is closer to -181, giving us clear line value. Sharp money strongly backs this side as well, with multiple respected books pricing this total significantly lower in the -220 to -226 range, signaling professional agreement that the number is inflated. When you can align positive EV, sharp consensus, and better odds than true price, that’s exactly the profile you want to be targeting long term.
Bet #5 Miller Over 3.5 / Under 3.5 Assists
Books: BetMGM / Caesars
Odds: +135 / +123
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Miller Over 3.5 Assists on MGM at +135 odds for $97.38. If this side hits you win $228.
Let's say you take Miller Under 3.5 Assists on Caesars at +123 odds for $102.62. If this side hits you win $228.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $228
No matter the result you make at least $28.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
