Happy Friday! We finally made it to the weekend! Yesterday's picks went 2/3 with a DNP from Kuzma and unfortunately the Georgia basketball game soared over. But over the last 2 articles we're hitting at over an 80% rate so let's keep this hot streak going. The slate today we have multiple CFB bowl games including #9 Alabama vs #8 Oklahoma CFB playoff game. 5 NBA Games, 5 NHL Games, and 27 CBB games throughout the day. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet #1 Memphis Moneyline
Book: Bovada
Odds: +190 (Can take up to +155)
Backing Memphis on the moneyline makes sense given their offensive consistency and situational edge in this matchup. The Tigers average over 420 yards and 34 points per game, pairing an efficient passing attack with a positive turnover margin (+9, top 15 nationally) that consistently puts them in position to win close games. Memphis has also been strong on third downs, keeping drives alive against defenses that struggle to get off the field. On the other side, NC State will be without star running back Hollywood Smothers, a major blow to their offense after he led the Wolfpack’s ground game and provided balance alongside the passing attack. Without Smothers, NC State becomes more one-dimensional and easier to scheme against, while Memphis enters healthier and more complete on offense. With the Tigers’ ability to generate points, win the turnover battle, and exploit an NC State offense missing its top playmaker, Memphis has a strong case to come out on top outright.
This Memphis moneyline at +190 qualifies as a strong +EV bet because the price is well above the market consensus and true probability. Sharp books are dealing Memphis much shorter, with respected sportsbooks showing prices around +145 to +153, signaling professional money backing Memphis at lower numbers. Based on these sharp lines, the fair value is +155, meaning the current +190 offers a significant edge. That gap creates an expected value of roughly +13.7%, indicating the bet is meaningfully mispriced. When you can grab nearly 35 cents of line value compared to sharp books and beat fair value by that margin, it’s a textbook +EV opportunity worth attacking.
Bet #2 Dylan Harper Over 3.5 Rebounds
Book: FanDuel
Odds: +104 (Can take up to -109)
Backing Dylan Harper Over 3.5 rebounds is supported by both recent form and team-level rebounding volume. Harper has cleared this line in three straight games, finishing with 5, 7, and 4 rebounds, showing increased involvement on the glass and a consistent floor above this number. He’s logging steady minutes and is active defensively, often positioned to collect long rebounds off missed perimeter shots. The Spurs are also averaging around 46 rebounds per game, ranking among the better rebounding teams in the league, which boosts individual prop upside across the rotation. With Harper’s growing confidence, effort on both ends, and a favorable rebounding environment, the Over 3.5 remains a strong, data-backed play.
This Dylan Harper Over 3.5 rebounds at +104 stands out as a clear +EV bet because it’s priced well above the sharp market and true expectation. Multiple respected sharp books are dealing this same over at -122, -125, and -128, showing strong professional agreement that the line should be juiced to the over. Based on that market consensus, the fair value is -109, making the current +104 a significant misprice. That discrepancy translates to an expected value of roughly +6.4%, giving bettors a meaningful edge. Anytime you’re able to grab plus money on a prop that sharp books heavily favor at minus prices, it signals a strong +EV opportunity worth targeting.
Bet #3 Anton Lundell Over 0.5 Points
Book: Fanatics
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -103)
Taking Anton Lundell Over 0.5 points is backed by recent performance trends and a favorable matchup context. Lundell has recorded 5 points over his last 5 games, consistently contributing offensively even in limited minutes, which shows he’s finding his way onto the scoresheet regularly. Additionally, the Hurricanes have been allowing over 3 goals per game, creating more scoring opportunities for opponents and increasing the likelihood that a solid offensive player like Lundell can notch at least one point. Combine his current scoring form with a matchup that’s been more porous defensively, and the Over 0.5 points looks like a smart, data-informed play.
This Anton Lundell Over 0.5 points at +105 grades out as a solid +EV bet because the current price is well above the sharp market consensus. Multiple respected sharp books are dealing this same over at -110, -117, and as high as -125, indicating strong professional support at much shorter odds. Based on those prices, the fair value sits around -103, making +105 a clear misprice. That difference results in an expected value of roughly +4.0%, giving bettors a measurable edge. When you’re getting plus money on a prop that sharp books are consistently juicing to the over, it’s a clear signal of positive expected value worth taking.
Bet #4 South Dakota State / Milwaukee Over 149.5 Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -102)
Taking the Over 149.5 points in South Dakota State vs. Milwaukee is supported by strong offensive trends and matchup data on both sides. South Dakota State ranks among the nation’s more efficient scoring teams, often pushing tempo and converting at a high rate inside and beyond the arc, while Milwaukee also plays at a relatively fast pace and doesn’t slow opponents defensively, allowing points at a generous clip. Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities — especially in transition and on perimeter contests — which sets the stage for a back-and-forth scoring environment. When you combine these offensive tendencies with a pace that favors more possessions and historically high scoring outputs in similar matchups, the Over 149.5 aligns with the statistical profile of this game and makes for a compelling points-total play.
The Over 149.5 points in South Dakota State vs. Milwaukee at +105 is a strong +EV bet because it’s priced well above sharp market consensus. Multiple sharp books have this over around -108, -112, and -117, signaling professional money backing a lower line. Based on these prices, the fair value is roughly -102, making the +105 on offer a clear misprice. That difference translates to an expected value of about +3.7%, giving bettors a tangible edge. Anytime the market consensus from sharps suggests a lower line and you can grab plus money, it’s a textbook +EV opportunity.
Bet #5 Wallace Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 Assists
Books: Bet365 / PointsBet
Odds: +210 / -125
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Wallace Over 2.5 Assists on Bet365 at +210 odds for $73.47. If this side hits you win $227.
Let's say you take Wallace Under 2.5 Assists on PointsBet at -125 odds for $126.53. If this side hits you win $227.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $227
No matter the result you make at least $27.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
