Happy Monday! Hope everybody had a great and profitable weekend. On deck for tonight we have MNF Colts vs 49ers. 7 NBA games, 4 NHL games, and 60+ CBB games throughout the day. Without further ado let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Interceptions
Book: Fanatics
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -120)
Backing Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions is supported by both season-long trends and the matchup. Purdy has already thrown 7 interceptions on the year, and this hasn’t been a one-off issue—he’s posted multiple games with multiple picks, including performances with 2, 2, and even 3 interceptions, showing a clear pattern of turnover risk when pressured. His aggressive downfield approach and willingness to challenge tight windows can lead to big plays, but it also increases interception probability, especially against disciplined defenses. That’s where the Indianapolis Colts defense comes into play, as they’ve consistently shown the ability to disrupt passing lanes and capitalize on quarterback mistakes, ranking among the stronger defensive units in generating turnovers. When you combine Purdy’s documented interception history with a Colts defense that thrives on forcing errors, the over 0.5 interceptions prop aligns well with both the data and the matchup context.
This Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Interceptions play grades out as a clear +EV bet based on both market movement and pricing discrepancies. The over is currently available at -110, while the Fair Value is -120, creating roughly a 4.0% edge compared to true probability. Even more telling, several sharp books are already dealing this line much shorter, with prices of -140, -141, and -145, signaling strong professional money backing the over. That gap between sharp consensus pricing and the available -110 number highlights meaningful value. When you can grab a plus-EV edge with alignment from respected books and a clear fair-odds advantage, it’s the exact type of bet long-term bettors look to consistently attack.
Bet #2 Cam Spencer Under 3.5 Rebounds
Book: Bet365
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -123)
Cam Spencer’s Under 3.5 Rebounds is well supported by both season-long data and recent form. He is averaging just 2.2 rebounds per game on the year, a full rebound and a half below this line, which highlights how rarely he approaches this threshold. Recent results reinforce the trend, as Spencer has gone under 3.5 rebounds in 3 of his last 5 games, consistently failing to see enough volume on the glass. His role in the offense further limits his rebounding upside, as he operates primarily on the perimeter and is not tasked with crashing the boards, especially when sharing the floor with stronger interior rebounders. With his usage and historical production both pointing well below this number, the under remains firmly supported by the data.
This Cam Spencer Under 3.5 Rebounds prop profiles as a clear +EV opportunity, with market support and pricing inefficiencies backing the play. The current price of -110 is well behind sharp consensus, as respected books are dealing this line as low as -138, -137, and -154, signaling strong sharp-side agreement on the under. PickTheOdds pegs the fair value at -123, creating a meaningful edge against the available odds and resulting in a +5.3% expected value. From a production standpoint, the under is supported by performance data as well — Spencer is averaging just 2.2 rebounds per game on the season and has stayed under 3.5 rebounds in 3 of his last 5 games, reinforcing that this number is inflated relative to his role and usage. When sharp money, fair value, and player trends all align, the under presents a strong long-term betting edge.
Bet #3 Matty Beniers Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -144 (Can take up to -154)
Matty Beniers Over 1.5 Shots On Goal is supported by both recent form and season-long production, making this a strong data-backed play. Beniers has covered this line in 4 of his last 5 games, firing 14 total shots on goal during that stretch, which highlights a consistent and reliable shooting floor. His increased shot volume aligns with his overall offensive impact this season, as he’s already recorded 18 points, reinforcing that he’s actively involved in creating scoring chances rather than deferring. With his role driving offensive zone time and his recent willingness to shoot, the 1.5 SOG line remains a low bar relative to his current usage, positioning the over as a well-supported, trend-based wager.
This Matty Beniers Over 1.5 Shots on Goal prop qualifies as a +EV opportunity based on both market consensus and pricing inefficiency. The line is currently available at -144, while sharp books are significantly juiced on the over, pricing it as high as -182, -185, and -190, signaling strong respected-money support on this side. With a Fair Value of -154, this creates a clear edge at the current number, resulting in an estimated +2.8% EV. From a performance standpoint, Beniers has cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games, totaling 14 shots over that span, and his overall offensive involvement remains strong with 18 points on the season. When you combine his recent shot volume, offensive role, and sharp market alignment, the over 1.5 SOG stands out as a data-backed, value-driven play.
Bet #4 East Carolina +26.5 Point Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -112)
When sizing up East Carolina +26.5 vs. North Carolina tonight, there’s legitimate value in the big number based on recent and season-long data. UNC is clearly the superior team — undefeated at home this season and dominating opponents straight up — but they’ve only covered huge spreads of this size a handful of times, and East Carolina has hung in better than the spread suggests, going 3–6–1 ATS overall and 1–4 ATS on the road in their last five as underdogs, indicating they’re not always blown out by elite teams. North Carolina’s offense hasn’t been overwhelmingly high-scoring in every game (e.g., a tight 71–70 win over Ohio State), meaning big leads aren’t a given. Meanwhile, East Carolina can put up points and stay competitive, with their defense forcing turnovers and their scoring floor not terribly low relative to expectations. With the public often hammering UNC and the spread stretched beyond what typical cover rates suggest, the +26.5 line offers real +EV appeal for bettors who believe ECU can keep this within striking distance even if they lose outright.
This shows positive expected value because the current price of East Carolina +26.5 at -105 is meaningfully better than the market consensus: sharp books are dealing -129, -130, and -122, which signals respected money is willing to pay a premium for this side. When those sharper prices are synthesized, the fair value is -112, so getting -105 represents clear line value. That gap translates to an estimated +2.9% EV, meaning the odds being offered underrate East Carolina’s true probability compared to both sharp action and the broader market.
Bet #5 George Over 24.5 / Under 24.5 Points
Books: NoVig / Bet365
Odds: +152 / -115
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take George Over 24.5 Points on NoVig at +152 odds for $85.18. If this side hits you win $214.
Let's say you take George Under 24.5 Points on Bet365 at -115 odds for $114.82. If this side hits you win $214.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $214
No matter the result you make at least $14.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
