Happy Monday! Hopefully everybody had a great Christmas and weekend. In our last blog we swept the board hitting at a 100% rate. That's the goal so let's keep the hot streak rolling! For the slate tonight we have MNF Falcons vs Rams, 11 NBA games, 11 NHL games, and a full 60+ CBB slate throughout the day. Let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet #1 Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Interceptions
Book: Bet365
Odds: -130 (Can take up to -142)
Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Interceptions is a strong bet because this season he’s been one of the most efficient and turnover-averse quarterbacks in the NFL — even as a 37-year-old veteran. In 2025 Stafford has thrown 40 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions, averaging only 0.33 interceptions per game, which translates to a low risk of a pick in any given contest. Beyond the raw numbers, he’s also posted historic interception-free stretches, including an NFL record streak of 28 straight touchdown passes without an interception, showing elite decision-making and ball security over extended periods. His offensive scheme under Sean McVay emphasizes quick reads, high-percentage throws, and protecting the football, and with top weapons like Davante Adams consistently getting open, Stafford can prioritize efficiency over risky downfield shots that typically lead to turnovers. All of this points toward a high probability he avoids interceptions in a single game, making the Under on 0.5 interceptions a defensible and fact-based play.
Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Interceptions grades out as a +EV bet because the market is clearly signaling a shorter true price than what’s being offered. Bet365 is hanging -130, while sharp books are already priced much lower, with Circa at -150, DraftKings at -154, and another major book as low as -170, showing strong respected money backing the under. Using these sharper lines, the fair value is -142, meaning bettors are getting a meaningful edge at -130. That discrepancy creates an expected value of +3.8%, which is significant for a player prop. When sharp consensus and fair value both point toward a lower number than the available price, it’s a textbook example of a long-term profitable wager.
Bet #2 Dylan Harper Under 3.5 Rebounds
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -105 (Can take up -114)
Dylan Harper Under 3.5 Rebounds is a well-supported play based on both season norms and recent form. On the year he’s averaging just 3.3 rebounds per game, already under this number, which suggests the line is slightly inflated relative to his typical production. Even more telling, in 4 of his last 5 games he’s failed to reach 4 boards, showing a consistent trend of coming up short of this mark. Harper’s role on offense often has him focused on perimeter playmaking and spacing rather than crashing the glass, and his team’s lineup construction doesn’t always funnel rebounding opportunities his way. When a player’s average sits below the line and recent performance reinforces that pattern, the Under on 3.5 rebounds becomes a logical, data-backed bet.
Dylan Harper Under 3.5 Rebounds profiles as a clear +EV bet due to strong sharp alignment and a favorable price discrepancy. Hard Rock is offering -105, while respected sharp books are already shaded significantly lower, with prices of -137, -141, and -118, indicating the sharper side of the market is firmly on the under. Based on this consensus, the fair value sits at -114, meaning bettors are getting a materially better number than the true price. That gap creates an expected value of +4.1%, which is notable for a player prop. When the best available line beats both sharp books and fair value by this margin, it signals a bet that holds long-term profitability.
Bet #3 Pavel Buchnevich Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BetRivers
Odds: -130 (Can take up to -139)
Pavel Buchnevich Over 1.5 Shots On Goal is a strong play backed by both recent trends and season production. He’s gone over this shots line in 4 of his last 5 games, showing he’s actively shooting and consistently generating offense against a variety of opponents. On the year he’s put up 7 goals and 21 points, proving he’s not just a playmaker — he’s involved in the scoring and shooting on a regular basis. Buchnevich’s role as a key offensive driver means he’s often on the ice for high-leverage chances and positioned to shoot, and his recent shooting frequency reinforces that this line is one he’s capable of clearing. With both his stats and usage trending in favor of volume, the Over on 1.5 shots looks like a logical, fact-based bet.
Pavel Buchnevich Over 1.5 Shots on Goal stands out as a +EV bet because the available price is well above where the sharp market has already settled. The line is being offered at -130, while respected sharp books are much shorter at -162, -162, and -165, clearly signaling professional money backing the over. Using those sharper prices, the fair value comes out to -139, meaning bettors are getting a meaningful edge at the current number. That difference results in an expected value of +2.8%, which is solid for a shots prop. When multiple sharp books agree on direction and the best available line beats fair value by this margin, it creates a clear long-term profitable opportunity.
Bet #4 Southern Illinois +3.5 Point Spread
Book: Bet105
Odds: +106 (Can take up to +101)
Southern Illinois +3.5 against Murray State is a strong value play because it provides a key possession of cushion while backing a team that consistently keeps games close. The Salukis rely on a balanced offensive approach and a disciplined defensive style that limits scoring runs, which has helped them stay competitive even when facing similar or stronger opponents. Murray State has shown inconsistency in closing out games and can struggle offensively against teams that slow the tempo and force half-court possessions. With the spread sitting at +3.5, Southern Illinois can still cover in a one-possession loss, a common outcome in matchups of this profile, while also carrying legitimate upset potential if the game stays tight late.
Southern Illinois +3.5 (1H) at +106 is a +EV spot because the market is telling a different story than the price we’re getting. Sharps are backing this side, with multiple respected books holding the line at -110 and some even implying a tighter spread around +4, which signals sharper money on Southern Illinois early. Our fair value is +101, so grabbing +106 gives us clear line value relative to the true odds. That difference translates to an EV of +2.6%, meaning over the long run this wager is profitable purely based on price. When you’re beating the sharp books and getting a number above fair value, that’s exactly the type of edge you want to consistently bet.
Bet #5 Kornet Over 5.5 / Under 5.5 Rebounds
Books: NoVig / Bovada
Odds: +105 / +125
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Kornet Over 5.5 Rebounds on NoVig at +105 odds for $104.65. If this side hits you win $214.
Let's say you take Kornet Under 5.5 Rebounds on Bovada at +125 odds for $95.35. If this side hits you win $214.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $214
No matter the result you make at least $14.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
