Happy Tuesday! In our last blog we got the sweep! 3/3 across 3 different leagues! Let's keep the hot streak going! For tonight we have 10 NBA games,7 NHL games, and 40+ CBB. Let's not waste anymore time and jump directly into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Atlanta Hawks Moneyline
Book: PointsBet
Odds: +120 (Can take up to +108)
Atlanta has clear offensive upside in this matchup, averaging about 109.8 points per game vs. Miami in recent meetings, showing they can score effectively against this defense when executing well. Star forward Jalen Johnson has emerged as a legitimate All-Star this season, averaging roughly 23.4 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 8.1 assists while shooting efficiently, giving Atlanta a versatile primary playmaker who can impact all facets of the game. Historically, the Hawks have beaten the Heat too — including a 98–86 road win where Atlanta controlled pace and defensive rebounding, proving they can dominate if they hit shots and defend consistently. Atlanta’s success has tended to come when they guard well and limit Miami’s offensive rhythm, and in that same vein, the Hawks have shown they can generate turnovers and push transition opportunities when they are engaged on defense. Moreover, despite recent losses, Atlanta’s ability to put up high assist totals reflects strong ball movement that can exploit Miami’s defensive weaknesses if the Heat are inconsistent. 
This Hawks moneyline qualifies as a +EV bet because the market is offering Atlanta at +120 while the sharp books are pricing this matchup much tighter, with respected sportsbooks showing implied prices around -105 to -101, signaling that sharper money views this closer to a coin flip than the public number suggests. The consensus fair value sits at +108, meaning the current +120 line is materially mispriced relative to true probability. That gap translates to roughly a 6.0% expected value, which is a strong edge for a single-game moneyline in the NBA. When multiple sharp indicators align above the available price and the fair value is meaningfully shorter than the market offering, it’s a textbook +EV scenario — you’re consistently getting paid more than you should be for the true win probability of the Hawks.
Bet #2 Anthony Mantha Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: +104 (Can take up to -108)
This Anthony Mantha Over 1.5 Shots on Goal is a clear +EV bet because the market is offering +104 while multiple sharp sportsbooks are pricing the same prop significantly shorter, with respected books showing -130, -122, and -122, indicating strong sharp agreement on the Over. The fair value is listed at -108, meaning the true probability implies this line should be favored, not plus money. That discrepancy creates roughly a 6.0% expected value edge, which is substantial for a player prop. When you’re able to take a plus-money price on a number that sharp markets consistently price as a favorite — and where fair value is more than 10 cents shorter — it’s a textbook example of positive expected value driven by market inefficiency rather than narrative.
Bet #3 Tennessee -11.5 Spread
Book: WynnBet
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -116)
Tennessee -11.5 against Ole Miss looks compelling because the Volunteers are playing efficient, balanced basketball on both ends, ranking among the top teams in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency nationally, while Ole Miss struggles to sustain consistent scoring runs. Tennessee has been dominant at home in Thompson-Boling Arena, where they force pace control and protect the rim, giving up fewer points than most SEC teams. The Vols also boast a strong rebounding edge and guard penetration that leads to high-percentage looks, while Ole Miss ranks near the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency and turnover creation. Historically Tennessee has covered big spreads against teams with inconsistent shooting like Ole Miss, especially when they control the glass and dictate tempo — factors that make getting more than a ten-point advantage well within reach tonight.
Tennessee -11.5 grades out as a +EV spread because the market is offering -110 while multiple sharp sportsbooks are pricing this same number significantly shorter, with respected books showing -128, -132, and as high as -135, signaling strong sharp agreement that Tennessee should be laying more juice at this spread. The fair value sits at -116, meaning the true probability implies this line should be priced notably higher than what’s currently available. That gap creates roughly a 2.6% expected value edge, which is solid for a college basketball spread. When the consensus sharp market and fair value are both meaningfully stronger than the offered price, it indicates you’re buying Tennessee at a discount relative to its true likelihood of covering — a classic +EV setup driven by market inefficiency rather than opinion.
Bet #4 Sensabaugh Over 19.5 / Under 19.5
Books: BetMGM / FanDuel
Odds: +220 / -188
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Sensabaugh Over 19.5 on DraftKings at +220 odds for $65. If this side hits you win $207.
Let's say you take Sensabaugh Under 19.5 on FanDuel at -188 odds for $135. If this side hits you win $207.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $207.
No matter the result you make at least $7.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
