Happy Thursday! In our last blog the picks went 2/3! Unfortunately Tennessee blew a huge lead and didn't cover the -11.5 spread. But 75% isn't too shabby! For today we have 8 NBA games, 7 NHL games, and 40+ CBB games. Without wasting anymore time let's jump right into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet #1 Tristan De Silva Under 3.5 Rebounds
Book: Bet365
Odds: -120 (Can take up to-137)
Tristan Da Silva profiles well for the Under 3.5 rebounds, as he is averaging 3.3 rebounds per game on the season, which already falls below this line. He has also gone under 3.5 rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games, posting consistently low rebounding totals during that stretch and averaging roughly 2.2 rebounds per game over those contests. His recent production aligns with his season-long numbers, reinforcing that his typical role and minutes have not resulted in reliable rebounding volume, making the under a statistically supported play.
This play qualifies as a strong +EV bet because the market is offering Under 3.5 rebounds at -120, while the fair value is priced closer to -137, creating a clear edge of roughly 6.1% expected value. Sharp sportsbooks are already much lower on this line, with respected books posting prices of -154, -159, and -162, indicating professional money is heavily aligned on the under. Getting -120 when the sharper consensus implies a significantly higher probability means you’re beating both the market and the true price, making this a textbook +EV opportunity driven by line disparity rather than opinion.
Bet #2 Bo Horvat Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -130 (Can take up to -138)
Bo Horvat projects well for Over 2.5 shots on goal based on both his season production and recent usage. This season he has already scored 23 goals through 43 games, showing he’s generating plenty of offense and shot opportunities as one of the Islanders’ primary scorers. Over the last few games he’s been actively getting pucks on net: in his most recent outing he recorded 3 shots on goal, and across his last 10 games he has 23 total shots, which breaks down to above 2 shots per game and highlights a trend of consistent shooting opportunities. Given his role as a top-line forward and his scoring volume this year, there’s strong statistical support for the Over 2.5 shots on goal.
This qualifies as a +EV spot because Bo Horvat Over 2.5 shots on goal is available at -130, while the fair value is closer to -138, creating an implied edge of roughly 2.7% expected value. Sharp sportsbooks are already pricing this market significantly higher, with respected books showing -152, -160, and -168, signaling strong professional agreement on the over. Securing -130 when the sharper consensus implies a much higher true probability means you’re beating the market price, making this a value-driven wager based on odds disparity rather than narrative.
Bet #3 New Haven Chargers / LIU Sharks Under 138.5 Points
Book: Bovada
Odds: +105 (Can take up to +100)
The matchup projects toward a lower-scoring game based on both teams’ offensive profiles and recent trends. The New Haven Chargers average just 64.9 points per game, ranking near the bottom of Division I, and they’ve struggled offensively away from home with sub-par shooting and scoring output. LIU, while a better offensive team at 75.1 PPG, also possesses a defense that limits efficient scoring and ranks middling defensively, and their recent games have often finished with totals on the lower side of expectations. Additionally, trend data shows that Under results have been common in recent games for both squads, with the Sharks going under multiple recent totals and the Chargers as a road underdog seeing Under outcomes frequently. With New Haven’s limited scoring upside and LIU’s defense able to contain offensive efficiency, the pace and point production suggest a combined total under 138.5 points is a solid, stats-backed expectation.
This Under 138.5 qualifies as a +EV bet because the market is offering a clear pricing edge compared to sharp consensus and fair value. While the playable line is available at +105, multiple sharp books are dealing the same total at -110 and -108, signaling respected money backing the under at worse prices. PickTheOdds’ fair value is +100, meaning the current +105 offers bettors an extra 5 cents of value, translating to a +2.4% expected value edge. When you’re able to grab plus money on a line that sharps are comfortable laying juice on, that pricing discrepancy is exactly what long-term profitable bettors look to exploit.
Bet #4 New Haven Over 70.5 / Under 70.5
Books: DraftKings / Thrillzz
Odds: +281 / -125
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take New Haven Over 70.5 on DraftKings at +281 odds for $65. If this side hits you win $244.
Let's say you take New Haven Under 70.5 on Thrillzz at -125 odds for $135. If this side hits you win $244.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $244.
No matter the result you make at least $44.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
