Happy Wednesday! Hopefully everybody had a successful weekend/start of the week and Super Bowl! In our last blog we went 2/3 with the only miss being Bo Horvat. Today we're going to secure the 4/4 sweep. For today we have a huge 14 game NBA slate and 50+ CBB games. Let's jump right into the sport betting picks for today!
Bet #1 Sion James Under 3.5 Rebounds
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +120 (Can take up to -105)
Sion James Under 3.5 Rebounds is supported by both season-long data and recent form. James is averaging 3.4 rebounds per game on the year, placing him below this line on average and leaving little margin to consistently clear 4 boards. Recent results further reinforce the under, as he has gone under 3.5 rebounds in each of his last three games, failing to reach the number despite normal rotations and minutes. His role does not emphasize rebounding volume, and he is rarely positioned as a primary rebounder on either end of the floor, which caps his upside. With the line set above his season average and recent trend pointing downward, the data clearly supports the under at 3.5 rebounds.
This play qualifies as a strong +EV bet because the market is offering a significant price discrepancy versus sharp consensus. Sion James Under 3.5 Rebounds is available at +120, while multiple sharp sportsbooks are pricing the same outcome at -132, -130, and -107, indicating heavy professional alignment on the under. Based on these sharp lines, the fair value is approximately -105, meaning +120 represents a massive edge relative to true probability. That gap translates to an expected value of +12.4%, which is well above the threshold most bettors target for long-term profitability. When you’re consistently getting plus money on outcomes that sharp books price as favorites, you’re betting into inefficiency — and this line is a textbook example of a mispriced market offering clear +EV.
Bet #2 John Collins Over 13.5 Points
Book: BetMGM
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -113)
John Collins Over 13.5 points is a compelling play backed by both season averages and recent form. He’s currently putting up 13.9 points per game on the year, already clearing this line on average, and his offensive role keeps him in high-usage scoring situations, especially around the rim and in pick-and-pop opportunities. Even more convincing is his recent consistency, as he’s gone over 13.5 points in each of his last five games, showing he’s trending in the right direction and regularly surpassing this mark despite varied matchups and minutes. Given his usage rate, scoring efficiency near the basket, and this five-game over streak, the data strongly supports taking Collins to continue clearing 13.5 points.
John Collins Over 13.5 points grades out as a +EV position due to a clear pricing edge versus sharp consensus. The market is currently offering -105, while respected sharp sportsbooks are pricing the same over at -122, -126, and as high as -135, signaling strong professional agreement on the over being the correct side. Using those sharp lines, the fair value projects to -113, meaning bettors are getting a discount of roughly 8 cents compared to true odds. That discrepancy results in an expected value of +3.5%, which is meaningful when scaled over volume. When you can lay near even money on a prop that sharp books consistently price as a stronger favorite, you’re capitalizing on inefficiency — making this Collins over a disciplined, long-term +EV bet.
Bet #3 Mercer -3.5 Point Spread
Book: TheScore
Odds: +110 (Can take up to -100)
Mercer -3.5 on the point spread looks like a smart play when you break down the matchup dynamics and statistical trends. Mercer has been playing strong at both ends, ranking near the top of their league in offensive efficiency and defensive turnover creation, which helps them control game tempo and limit opponent scoring. They’ve also consistently covered larger spreads recently, showing they can put games away — especially when they get out to early leads and force weaker offenses into uncomfortable shots. Meanwhile, their opponent has struggled to defend against balanced scoring attacks and tends to concede leads in the second half. Given Mercer’s ability to generate high-quality shots, protect the ball, and close out games, the -3.5 spread feels justified and offers good value compared to the underlying performance and matchup advantages.
Mercer -3.5 qualifies as a +EV spread bet due to a clear pricing mismatch against sharp market consensus. The line is currently available at +110, while respected sharp sportsbooks are pricing Mercer at -105, -111, and -113, signaling professional money heavily favoring Mercer to cover this number. Based on those sharp prices, the fair value projects to around -100, making +110 a sizable edge relative to true probability. That discrepancy creates an expected value of approximately +5.0%, which is well above breakeven and attractive from a long-term betting standpoint. When you’re able to take plus money on a side that sharp books consistently price as a favorite, you’re exploiting market inefficiency — making Mercer -3.5 a disciplined, data-backed +EV wager.
Bet #4 Kent State -12.5 / Eastern Michigan +12.5
Books: Hard Rock / BetRivers
Odds: +140 / +123
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Kent State -12.5 on Hard Rock at +140 odds for $97. If this side hits you win $231.
Let's say you take Eastern Michigan +12.5 on BetRivers at +123 odds for $103. If this side hits you win $231.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $231.
No matter the result you make at least $31.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
