Happy Thursday! Hopefully everyone had a success NBA all star break! In our last blog we got the sweep going 3/3! Let's keep that hot streak rolling into today and get back to back sweeps. For today we have 10 NBA games and 37 CBB games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet #1 Tyrese Maxey Under 3.5 Rebounds
Book: NoVig
Odds: +112 (Can take up to -101)
Taking Maxey under 3.5 rebounds makes sense for a few reasons: in his last 5 games he’s averaged just 3.2 rebounds per game, dipping below the 3.5 line consistently despite his usual workload, which shows a recent trend toward lower boards. Historically against Atlanta he’s also posted modest rebounding numbers, often around or under his prop line. Meanwhile, the Hawks are overall a solid rebounding team, limiting opponents’ rebound opportunities and generally competing well on the glass (Atlanta’s opponents grab under ~47 total rebounds per game this season), which creates a tougher environment for a guard like Maxey to pile up boards. Add in Maxey’s role as a primary scorer/distributor where he often stays on the perimeter rather than crashing the boards, and the matchup leans toward him staying under this relatively low rebound total again.
Tyrese Maxey under 3.5 rebounds at +112 is a clear +EV look when you compare it to the sharper market. Multiple sharp books are pricing this prop at -117, -114, and -122, with a consensus fair value around -101, meaning the true probability is closer to a coin flip (or slightly better) than what +112 implies. At +112, you’re getting paid as if this outcome only hits about 47% of the time, while the sharper numbers suggest it should be closer to 50–52%, creating roughly a 6.3% expected value edge. When you’re consistently beating the sharp closing range by 15–20 cents like this, that’s exactly the type of price discrepancy that generates long-term profit.
Bet #2 Samford vs The Citadel Over 142.5 Total Points
Book: BetRivers
Odds: +116 (Can take up to +104)
Targeting the Over 142.5 in Samford vs. The Citadel makes sense given the statistical profile of both teams. Samford has consistently ranked near the top of Division I in tempo and offensive efficiency, pushing pace and creating a high volume of scoring possessions. They rely heavily on perimeter shooting and early offense, which naturally increases total shot attempts and overall game variance. On the other side, The Citadel also plays at an up-tempo pace and has struggled defensively, allowing opponents to score efficiently while engaging in higher-possession games. When two fast teams with three-point volume and aggressive offensive schemes meet, totals tend to inflate quickly. With both programs comfortable in transition, willing to shoot early in the shot clock, and capable of generating free-throw attempts, the ingredients are in place for this matchup to clear the 142.5 mark in regulation.
Samford vs. The Citadel Over 142.5 at +116 presents clear +EV when compared to sharper market pricing. Multiple sharp books are dealing this total at -110, -102, and -105, implying a true probability well above what +116 suggests. At +116, the implied probability is roughly 46.3%, while the sharper numbers price the Over closer to the 50–52% range, creating about a 5.7% expected value edge. With a fair value calculated around +104, you’re getting a meaningful 12-cent edge over market consensus. Consistently capturing this type of discrepancy versus sharp books is exactly how long-term profitability is built in totals markets.
Bet #3 Egor Demin Under 2.5 3's Made
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -129)
Egor Demin Under 2.5 3PT Made at -105 shows strong +EV when you compare it to sharper market pricing. Multiple sharp books are dealing this under at -134, -148, and -151, with a calculated fair value around -129, meaning the true probability of this outcome is significantly higher than what -105 implies. At -105, the implied probability is about 51.2%, while the sharper lines suggest this should be priced closer to 56–60%, creating roughly a 9.9% expected value edge. When you’re getting a 25–45 cent discount versus sharp books on the same prop, that type of pricing inefficiency is exactly what long-term profitable betting is built on.
Bet #4 Dwight Powell Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 Rebounds
Books: Bet365 / Fanatics
Odds: +180 / +100
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Dwight Powell Over 2.5 Rebounds on Bet365 at +180 odds for $84. If this side hits you win $233.
Let's say you take Dwight Powell Under 2.5 Rebounds on Fanatics at +100 odds for $116. If this side hits you win $233.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $233.
No matter the result you make at least $33.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
