Happy Friday! In our last blog our picks went 2/3! Unfortunately Purdue Fort Wayne could not come through as they took the L against Oakland. Today we're aiming to go for the 3/3 sweep as we head into the weekend. For the slate tonight we have 9 NBA games, a single NHL game and 25 CBB games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet #1 Brandin Podziemski Over 3.5 Assists
Book: ProphetX
Odds: -127 (Can take up to -140)
Brandin Podziemski is a solid pick over 3.5 assists because he’s not only averaging around 3.6 assists per game on the season, showing a baseline that’s already right at this prop level, but he’s also been cranking up his playmaking lately, averaging over 5 assists across his last 5 games and around 4.3 assists in his last 3, indicating he’s consistently topping this line in recent outings. This trend suggests he’s been involved more as a facilitator, creating extra scoring opportunities and covering the 3.5 assists line in 4 of his last 5 games, which supports backing the over with both statistical season context and recent performance momentum.
Brandin Podziemski Over 3.5 Assists grades out as a clear +EV bet based on market inefficiencies and sharp alignment. The best available price of -127 is well behind sharp consensus, with multiple respected books pricing this prop at -165, signaling strong professional agreement on the over. Using those sharp prices, the true fair value projects closer to -140, creating a meaningful edge at current odds. That gap translates to roughly +4.1% expected value, a strong number for a player prop. When you’re able to grab a line that’s 38 cents better than sharp markets and well above fair value, you’re betting into long-term profitability rather than just a single outcome — exactly the profile you want when attacking +EV player props.
Bet #2 Zach Werenski Under 3.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -133 (Can take up to -140)
Zach Werenski has averaged 3.62 shots per game this season, which is below a high usage threshold and suggests volatility around the 3.5 mark rather than a consistent over performance. According to recent game data, Werenski has registered a total of only 12 shots on goal in his last 5 games, which works out to 2.4 SOG per game — meaning he has gone under the 3.5 shots line in 5/5 of his most recent outings. This stretch shows that despite his role as a top offensive defenseman for Columbus, his shooting frequency has dipped recently, likely due to game flow, matchups, and situational usage rather than a sustained shooting barrage. Over this small sample, that under trend offers context for betting the under on his shots line.
Zach Werenski Under 3.5 Shots on Goal is a clear +EV play tonight. The sharps are aggressively backing the under, with multiple sharp books pricing it around -160 to -165, while the public line sits at -133. Our calculated fair value of -140 indicates that the market is offering extra value on the under, giving bettors a +2.1% edge. Coupled with Werenski going under 3.5 SOG in 5 straight games, the combination of sharp money and historical trends makes this bet highly favorable from an expected value perspective — you’re essentially getting better odds than what the true probability suggests.
Bet #3 Georgia Southern / Louisiana Monroe Over 152.5 Points
Book: FanDuel
Odds: -114 (Can take up to -139)
Taking Georgia Southern / Louisiana–Monroe Over 152.5 points is rooted in the offensive tendencies and historical scoring trends of these two teams. Georgia Southern is averaging about 82.5 points per game, while UL Monroe scores roughly 70.8 points per contest, which together project well over the 152.5 line based on their season norms. Historically, matchups between these squads have produced high totals — for example a previous meeting went 90–82 (172 total points), which easily cleared a lower total. Additionally, both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities this season (ULM allowing over 80 ppg and GS giving up roughly 80 ppg), meaning neither has consistently been able to clamp down to suppress scoring. With balanced scoring threats on both rosters and recent scoring distributions trending high, the Over on 152.5 carries solid analytical support.
The Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana-Monroe total points line at Over 152.5 (-114) represents a clear +EV opportunity. Sharp money is firmly on the Over, with respected sharps like -175, -145, and even -239 on this line, signaling strong market confidence. Our fair value calculation sits at -139, meaning the current odds offer about 9.2% expected value, giving bettors an edge by locking in a price below what sharps and market analysis suggest it should be. When sharps are heavily aligned and the EV% is this high, the Over becomes a strategic play for those looking to capitalize on mispriced totals.
Bet #4 Watson Over 13.5 / Under 13.5
Books: DraftKings / 1XBet
Odds: -120 / +270
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Watson Over 13.5 on DraftKings at -120 odds for $133. If this side hits you win $245.
Let's say you take Watson Under 13.5 on 1XBet at +270 odds for $67. If this side hits you win $245.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $245
No matter the result you make at least $45.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
