Happy Wednesday! Hopefully you all had a profitable last couple days of sports betting. In our last blog we went 2/3! Unfortunately the Mammoth did not score over 2.5 points, they actually ended up getting shutoff by the lightning which was completely unexpected. Let's aim to get back to the sweep train and sweep tonight's slate. For tonight we have 9 NBA games, 3 NHL games, and 40+ CBB games. Let's get right into the picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Jaden McDaniels Over 13.5 Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -117)
Jaden McDaniels is a strong candidate to clear 13.5 points because he’s averaging 14.8 points per game on the season, already above the line you’re targeting, and has shown consistent scoring reliability recently. Over his last five games he’s cleared this line in 4 of them, demonstrating that his recent form has been trending toward producing scoring totals above this prop. His offensive role has been solid enough that he’s exceeded 13.5 in a majority of matchups this year, and his scoring has been buoyed by both increased involvement and efficient shooting stretches — giving reason to believe the over is a sensible play.
Jaden McDaniels Over 13.5 Points (-105) profiles as a clear +EV bet based on market pricing and sharp consensus. This line shows a +5.3% expected value, driven by a meaningful gap between the available price and the market’s true odds. Multiple sharp books are already pricing this over significantly shorter, with sharp money landing in the -127 to -138 range, while you’re still able to grab -105, creating immediate closing-line value. The calculated fair value sits at -117, meaning the current number is mispriced by roughly 12 cents, a sizable edge in player props. When sharp books agree on a shorter number and the market lags behind, it’s a textbook +EV setup — you’re betting into a line that is statistically expected to win more often than the odds imply.
Bet #2 Cole Makar Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -105)
Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal is a compelling bet because he’s shown consistent shooting volume recently and is a key offensive driver for Colorado. He’s cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games, demonstrating he’s consistently getting into shooting areas and contributing active offense. On the season he has 15 goals, which for a defenseman signals heavy involvement around the net — the same kind of activity that leads to shots on goal. Given his role on the power play and his ability to jump into the rush, Makar consistently sees time and opportunities to fire pucks at the net, making the 2.5 shots line one he’s been trending above and giving strong statistical support for taking the over.
Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105) stands out as a strong +EV bet due to clear market inefficiencies and sharp alignment. This prop carries a +4.8% expected value, driven by the gap between the widely available plus-money price and where respected sharp books have already moved the line. Multiple sharp sportsbooks are pricing this over at -118 to -120, while bettors can still capture +105, representing significant closing-line value. The calculated fair value sits at -105, meaning the current price is mispriced by roughly 20 cents, a sizable edge for a player-prop market. When sharp money consistently agrees on a shorter number and the market lags behind, it creates a textbook +EV opportunity — you’re effectively betting at a price that implies a lower probability than the true market consensus.
Bet #3 Purdue Fort Wayne Moneyline
Book: Caesars
Odds: +115 (Can take up to +110)
Purdue Fort Wayne Moneyline tonight against Oakland is a strong play because the Mastodons have been the better team recently and in conference play, sitting with a solid 13-8 overall and 7-3 Horizon League record, while Oakland is 8-3 in conference yet just 4-9 overall and inconsistent. Fort Wayne also just won 83-76 in their latest matchup, led by a 22-point night from Corey Hadnot II, showing they can close out tight games at home. Additionally, Purdue Fort Wayne has proven capable of beating Oakland historically — they took an 80-66 road win in their last true road meeting — and they’re strong when they limit turnovers, going 9-2 when they commit fewer turnovers than opponents this season. With Oakland’s offense middling and Fort Wayne’s recent form stronger, the moneyline has real value tonight.
Purdue Fort Wayne Moneyline (+115) qualifies as a +EV bet due to clear value versus market consensus and sharp pricing. This spot shows a +2.4% expected value, created by the gap between the widely available price and where sharper books have drawn the line. Multiple sharp sportsbooks are holding Purdue Fort Wayne closer to -102 to +102, signaling a near coin-flip game, while bettors can still grab +115, which overstates Oakland’s true win probability. The calculated fair value sits at +110, meaning the current number is mispriced by roughly 5 cents, enough to generate long-term edge on moneyline underdogs. When sharp markets price a team closer to even and the public-facing books lag behind, it creates a classic +EV opportunity — you’re taking a better payout than the true odds justify.
Bet #4 Bellarmine -20.5 / West Georgia +20.5
Books: Bet365 / Kalshi
Odds: +625 / -360
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Bellarmine -20.5 on Bet365 at +652 odds for $30. If this side hits you win $217.
Let's say you take West Georgia +20.5 on Kalshi at -360 odds for $170. If this side hits you win $217.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $217
No matter the result you make at least $17.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
