Happy Monday! We have a sports filled Monday as we have TWO MNF games. Two MLB post season games. A day of NHL and some NBA Preseason to cap off the night. Let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet 1: Timo Meier Over 3.5 Shots On Goal
Book: Bet365
Odds: +155 (Can take up to +148)
Timo Meier’s Over 3.5 Shots on Goal line looks appealing given his strong shooting volume and offensive role. He’s averaged around 4.0 shots per game this season and last season and continues to be a focal point for New Jersey’s attack, especially on the power play and top line. Meier has already shown his ceiling early in the year, recording 5 shots on goal in one game, proving he can easily clear this number when he’s active in the offensive zone. His combination of ice time, shot-heavy style, and willingness to attack the net makes the over a solid play—especially in matchups where the Devils are expected to push the pace.
This is a +EV bet because Bet365 is hanging +155 on Meier Over 3.5 Shots while the consensus sharp books have it priced closer to +120–+134, implying a true fair value around +148. That gap creates a 2.9% expected value edge, meaning the Bet365 line is mispriced relative to the market. Essentially, you’re getting a better payout than the true probability suggests — if this same bet were placed repeatedly at +155 with fair value around +148, it would yield long-term profit. The edge is market-driven, not just performance-based, making it a strong value play at this number.
Bet 2: Blake Perkins Under 0.5 Total Bases
Book: BookMaker
Odds: -109 (Can take up to -118)
Blake Perkins Under 0.5 Total Bases is a strong play considering his recent struggles and the difficult matchup ahead. Perkins has gone hitless in each of his last three games (0-for-10 combined), and his season average has dropped to .224. He’s also hitting just .209 against left-handed pitching, which doesn’t bode well as he faces Blake Snell tonight — an elite lefty known for his swing-and-miss stuff and dominance against lower-order bats. With Perkins cold at the plate and matched up against one of the game’s toughest pitchers, the Under 0.5 Total Bases offers clear +EV value.
This Blake Perkins Under 0.5 Total Bases play is +EV because Bookmaker is offering it at -109, while the sharp market has it priced between -130 and -155, implying a fair value of -118 and a 4.0% edge. That pricing discrepancy means the line at Bookmaker is undervalued compared to the true market odds, providing long-term profitability. When sharper books are heavily juiced toward the same side, it signals that the Under is the more efficient position — making the current price a strong buy before the market corrects.
Bet 3: Atlanta Falcons Falcons Over 2.5 Team Touchdowns
Book: Bet365
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -114)
The Falcons' offense showed signs of life in Week 4, scoring 34 points against the Washington Commanders. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. threw two touchdown passes, Drake London went over 100 receiving yards and running back Bijan Robinson contributed significantly with over 100 total yards from scrimmage. The Bills' defense has been vulnerable, allowing an average of 22.6 points per game this season. Additionally, key defensive players like safety Damar Hamlin and linebacker Matt Milano are sidelined due to injuries Reuters . This presents an opportunity for the Falcons to exploit the Bills' weakened defense. With the Falcons' offense gaining momentum and finding form and the Bills' defense facing challenges, betting the OVER on Atlanta's touchdowns seems like a reasonable wager.
This is a strong +EV play because Bet365 is offering Atlanta Over 2.5 Team TDs at +100, while sharper books like FanDuel, PointsBet, and DraftKings have the same line priced between -120 and -140. That gap creates a 6.4% expected value edge, meaning you’re getting a far better price than what the market consensus suggests. When multiple sharp books are aligned on a significantly shorter number, it indicates real value in backing Atlanta to hit three or more touchdowns at even money.
Bet 4: Spurs / Pacers Over 235 Total Points
Book: Prime
Odds: +101 (Can take up to -105)
The Over 235 makes sense in this Spurs–Pacers preseason matchup because both teams are built to play fast and emphasize offense over defense, especially in the preseason. Indiana led the league in pace and points per game last year, and Rick Carlisle tends to keep the tempo high even in exhibition play to get his offense into rhythm early. The Spurs, meanwhile, are experimenting with new offensive looks around Wembanyama and have been pushing the pace in the preseason to build chemistry with their young core. With both squads likely to run and showcase their offensive depth rather than tighten up defensively, this game profiles as a high-possession, up-and-down contest — ideal conditions for the Over to hit.
This is +EV because Prime is offering the Over 235 at +101 while sharp books are pricing the same total much shorter (around -121, -115 and -120 on the sharper markets shown), and the card’s fair value sits near -105 — that divergence implies about a 2.9% edge in your favor. In short: you’re getting a better payout than the market of professional bettors and model projections suggest, so backing the Over at Prime captures a small but genuine pricing inefficiency.
Bet 5: Los Angeles Over / Under 8.5 Team Hits
Books: Bet365 / Hard Rock
Odds: +150 / -105
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Los Angeles Over 8.5 Team Hits on Bet365 at +150 odds for $87.70 If this side hits you win $219.
Let's say you take Los Angeles Under 8.5 Team Hits on Hard Rock at -105 odds for $112.30 If this side hits you win $219.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $219
No matter the result you make at least $19.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
