Happy Monday! In our last blog we went 3/3 for the sweep! Let's try and keep up the hot streak and we have a great Monday slate to do so. MNF Steelers vs Dolphins, 5 NBA games, 5 NHL games, and 13 CBB games throughout the day. Let's get right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 De'Von Achane Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
Book: Bet105
Odds: +102 (Can take up to -107)
De’Von Achane over 27.5 receiving yards profiles well tonight against the Steelers given his established role in Miami’s passing attack. Achane is averaging roughly 30 receiving yards per game this season and has cleared 27.5 receiving yards in six games, showing this number is well within his regular range of outcomes. He’s consistently used on screens, check-downs, and designed space touches, ranking near the top among RBs in targets per route run when active. Against a Pittsburgh defense that pressures quarterbacks at a high rate, Achane’s short-area usage becomes even more valuable as an outlet for Tua Tagovailoa. His speed after the catch allows him to turn routine receptions into chunk gains, giving him multiple paths to cash this number without needing a high target volume, making the over 27.5 a strong, data-backed look.
De’Von Achane over 27.5 receiving yards is a clear +EV bet at +102 given the surrounding market and sharp consensus. Multiple sharp books are pricing this prop significantly shorter, with respected markets showing -109, -112, and as high as -118, indicating strong agreement that the true probability is higher than what +102 implies. Pick The Odds’ fair value of -107 suggests this line should be closer to a modest favorite, creating a 4.5% edge at the current price. When you’re getting plus money on a prop that sharp books have already shaded toward the over, you’re capturing closing line value and betting into a mispriced market — exactly what you want in a long-term profitable +EV approach.
Bet #2 Reed Sheppard Over 9.5 Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -124)
Reed Sheppard over 9.5 points is supported by both recent form and season-long production with the Rockets. He has cleared this line in each of his last three games, showing increased comfort and offensive confidence as his role has stabilized in the rotation. On the season, Sheppard is averaging 12.9 points per game, well above this threshold, and he’s doing it efficiently by capitalizing on catch-and-shoot opportunities, transition looks, and secondary creation minutes. With consistent playing time and usage trending upward, he doesn’t need an outlier shooting night to reach double figures, making the over 9.5 points a solid, data-driven look based on both recent results and his established scoring average.
Reed Sheppard over 9.5 points is a clear +EV play at -115 when you compare it to the rest of the market and sharp pricing. Several sharp books are already shading this over much heavier, with prices sitting around -140, -155, and as high as -165, signaling strong market confidence that this line should be juiced. Pick The Odds’ fair value of -124 confirms the mispricing, making -115 a favorable entry point and creating a 3.5% expected value edge. When you’re able to grab a key number at a cheaper price than where sharp books are dealing it, you’re locking in positive closing line value and betting into a spot where the true probability is higher than the implied odds.
Bet #3 Robert Thomas Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -108)
Robert Thomas over 1.5 shots on goal is a strong play based on recent usage and offensive deployment. In his last 2 of 3 games, Thomas has registered at least 2 SOG, showing he’s actively finding shooting lanes and being assertive in the offensive zone, not just taking peripheral looks. He’s been seeing consistent ice time in all situations, including power play opportunities where shot volume naturally increases, and his shooting attempts per 60 minutes this season rank among the team’s top contributors. Given his role as a primary play driver and shooter on the Blues’ top lines, there’s a real floor that supports him clearing 1.5 shots even if one attempt comes from a busy offensive sequence rather than an elite shooting night, making the over a sound, trend-backed look.
Robert Thomas over 1.5 shots on goal stands out as a +EV bet at +100 when compared to sharp market pricing. Several respected sharp books are dealing this same over at -123 and -130, showing clear consensus that the true probability is much higher than what even money implies. Pick The Odds’ fair value of -108 further confirms the edge, meaning you’re getting a significantly better price than the expected break-even point. With a calculated 3.6% EV, this is a textbook example of finding value by taking plus money on a prop that sharp books have already shaded toward the over, capturing strong closing line value in the process.
Bet #4: Wyoming vs South Dakota Under 149.5 Total Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -100)
Wyoming vs South Dakota under 149.5 total points is appealing when you consider both teams’ tendencies and pace profiles. Wyoming typically plays at a slower tempo, ranked in the bottom half of Division I in possessions per game, and relies on deliberate half-court sets that limit total shot attempts. South Dakota also doesn’t push the pace, often ranking below average in transition frequency and preferring structured offensive possessions, which naturally suppresses scoring volume. Defensively, both teams contest shots and force tougher looks inside the arc, contributing to lower effective field goal percentages than many high-scoring teams. When you combine slower pace, methodical offenses, and defenses that emphasize contested attempts, there’s a strong basis to expect fewer total possessions and lower scoring — making the under 149.5 total points a well-supported look.
Wyoming vs South Dakota Under 149.5 total points is a solid +EV opportunity at +105, driven by sharp market agreement and favorable pricing. Multiple respected sharp books are dealing this same under at -110 to -115, signaling that the true probability is closer to a pick’em or worse, not plus money. Pick The Odds’ fair value of -100 confirms the edge, showing you’re getting a better price than the market consensus. With an estimated 2.7% EV, this bet captures value by taking an inflated total at plus money while sharp books have already moved the line toward the under, giving you positive closing line value on a pace-driven matchup.
Bet #5 Pittsburgh / Miami Team First Punt
Books: Caesars/ PointsBet
Odds: +145 / -110
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Pittsburgh To Punt First on Caesars at +145 odds for $87.59. If this side hits you win $214.
Let's say you take Miami To Punt First on PointsBet at -110 odds for $112.41. If this side hits you win $214.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $214
No matter the result you make at least $14.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
