Happy Tuesday! Yesterdays picks split 50/50 at 2-2. Unfortunately NHL and CBB wasn't too kind to us but we of course have to move onto today. For today we have the NBA cup finals, Spurs vs Knicks, 10 NHL games, and 44 CBB games throughout the day. Let's hop right into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet #1 Stephon Castle Over 22.5 Points + Assists
Book: Bet365
Odds: -125 (Can take up to -143)
Stephon Castle Over 22.5 Points + Assists is supported by both recent form and season-long production, as he’s covered this line in three straight games, totaling 70 points and 13 assists over that stretch (27.7 P+A per game). On the season, Castle is averaging 18.4 points and 6.9 assists per game, combining for 25.3 P+A, which already clears this number comfortably. His role as a primary ball-handler and creator in the Spurs’ offense keeps his usage high, giving him multiple paths to the over through both scoring and playmaking. With consistent minutes, strong recent momentum, and a season average well above the posted line, the data supports value on the over at 22.5 Points + Assists.
Stephon Castle Over 22.5 Points + Assists at -125 grades out as a +EV bet (5.9%) because the market is showing clear sharp agreement and mispriced odds. Multiple sharp books are already priced significantly shorter, with respected markets sitting at -154, -160, and as high as -196, while the fair value is -143, meaning -125 is well below where this line should be. That gap creates real value, as you’re getting a number that’s 18 cents better than fair and over 30–70 cents better than sharp consensus. When sharper books are aligned on the over and a softer book is lagging behind, it’s a textbook positive expected value spot — especially with Castle’s recent production already clearing this number.
Bet #2 Anthony Mantha Over 0.5 Points
Book: BetRivers
Odds: +133 (Can take up to +126)
Anthony Mantha over 0.5 points is a solid play because he’s produced 4 points in his last 5 games and already has 20 points on the season, showing he’s consistently contributing to the scoreboard. He’s been playing in a more offensive role recently, which increases his opportunities to cash this simple scoring prop. On the other side, the Edmonton Oilers give up more than 3 goals per game on average, meaning there’s ample scoring environment for Detroit’s top-6 to generate goals and assists. If Mantha is getting sustained power-play time and looks around the net, those are high-leverage scoring chances that help push him past a 0.5 points expectation. Given his recent production, season totals, and matchup against a defense that allows plenty of scoring, the over on 0.5 points makes factual, statistical sense.
Anthony Mantha Over 0.5 Points at +133 is a clear +EV play (3.1%) because the price is out of sync with both sharp markets and fair value. The fair value is +126, meaning you’re getting Mantha at 7 cents better than true odds, which creates positive expected value. Sharper books are also pricing this prop much shorter, with respected markets sitting around +105, +110, and +112, showing that the consensus expectation is that Mantha records a point more often than the +133 price implies. When sharp books are clustered 20–30 cents lower and a softer book is lagging behind, it creates a textbook +EV opportunity — making Mantha Over 0.5 Points a mathematically sound value bet.
Bet #3 Duke / Lipscomb Under 71.5 Total Points 1st Half
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +105)
Lipscomb / Duke Under 71.5 Total Points 1st Half makes sense because Lipscomb struggles offensively against elite defensive pressure, and Duke typically brings tough half-court defense that limits easy baskets early. Lipscomb’s pace is slower and their scoring efficiency drops sharply against top defenses, meaning they often come out of the gate tentative and low-scoring. Meanwhile, Duke’s defensive units are disciplined in the first half, forcing contested shots and turnovers that suppress opponent scoring — and they don’t always push the pace themselves early, which keeps the halftime total down. Given Lipscomb’s offensive challenges, Duke’s ability to clamp down early, and the tendency for slower starts in mismatches like this, the under 71.5 first half points is supported by the matchup context and recent scoring trends.
Lipscomb vs. Duke Under 71.5 First-Half Total at +110 grades out as a +EV bet (2.6%) because the price is better than both market consensus and fair value. The fair value sits at +105, so grabbing +110 gives you an extra 5 cents of edge on the under. Sharp books are also aligned on this number, with respected markets dealing Under 71.5 at -110, indicating the true expectation is closer to a coin-flip or better for the under than the plus-money price suggests. When sharper books are pricing the same outcome at -110 and a softer book is offering +110, that discrepancy creates positive expected value — making the first-half under a mathematically sound +EV play.
Bet #4 Werenski Over 3.5 / Under 3.5 Shots On Goal
Books: Bet365 / ProphetX
Odds: +130 / -104
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Werenski Over 3.5 Shots On Goal on Bet365 at +130 odds for $92.06. If this side hits you win $211.
Let's say you take Werenski Under 3.5 Shots On Goal on ProphetX at -104 odds for $92.06. If this side hits you win $211.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $211
No matter the result you make at least $11.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
